Dobbs + Deniers + Donald = Defeat
Pretty, who follows political predictors via Twitter, kept telling me all weekend that the Dems were going to maintain control of the Senate but I couldn’t breathe a sigh of relief until I saw Steve Kornacki at the Big Board last night finally with the 50 – 49 blue trickle for the 2022 midterms. Thousands of votes remain to be counted in the next few days, but Steve’s projected House final numbers lean 219 – 216 in favor of the Repulicans with a +/- 4. Hardly a Red Tsunami or even Red Wave; more like a Blue Trickle.
For the Dems, the results were nothing short of historic. With a Democratic President whose approval rating was a shaky 44%, inflation hitting every voter where it hurts, and a formerly popular former President who handpicked many of the Maga candidates that peppered the ballots in battleground states – I found little to hope for any victories. I had seen the numbers of previous midterm elections and wouldn’t be watching these returns for love or money.
The average seat loss in the House has been 28 since World War II. It has been 43 seats when the president’s Gallup Poll approval rating was below 50%. And as for Democrats, in particular, the last four lost an average of 45 House seats in the first midterm after they were elected. Ron Elving, NPR
O, ye of little faith, Sheila.
The following represents my unscientific personal opinion of what changed expected outcomes in the midterm election on November 08, 2022.
(1) Roe, Roe, Roe the Vote – taking away the right of women to control their own bodies’ health care, a right held for nearly 50 years, was a colossal misstep by the Supreme Court in the summer of 2022 – voters who might have stayed at home in an average midterm…didn’t.
(2) Democracy was on the ballot as President Biden reminded the country in his pre-election closing speech. He made a bet that the American people weren’t really interested in giving up on our fundamental, albeit still flawed, belief in equality and justice for all. Even his detractors evidently said Point Taken – and voted accordingly.
(3) The January 06th. Committee hearings. How many times did the committee show actual footage of the Insurrection of 01/06/21? How many Republicans testified they believed the former President was responsible for the Original Sin of Election Denial? And on and on. Even if viewers weren’t politically obsessed like me, enough citizens must have watched portions of the 01/06 committee hearings to figure out that EDs must have lost either their eyesight and/or their minds to be persuaded the folks storming the Capitol were there for a simple visit. Hang Mike Pence, indeed.
(4) Young people voted. Hey, they liked the Democrats’ support of climate change initiatives, sensible gun control legislation, student loan forgiveness – and they Roe, Roe, Roed the vote.
(5) The Culinary Union in Nevada and all the other boots on the ground in every state for this election. Hats off to those organizers that truly sacrificed by leaving their jobs to knock on doors to get out the vote, to those who financially supported those boots on the ground, to the postcard brigades that sent millions of cards from their kitchen tables to pave the road for the boots on the ground.
By the way, Pretty’s Twitter Predictor says the Dems will win the House by a margin of 219 – 216. I can’t go there yet. I finally exhaled last night and don’t have the lung capacity to inhale again today.
Stay safe, stay sane and please stay tuned.